Ever since their wins over Netherlands and Sri Lanka, things have not gone well for Pakistan in the 2023 ODI World Cup. Three consecutive defeats puts Babar Azam and Co in a tough spot, but the Men in Green are not out of semi-final reckoning just yet.
Pakistan have suffered losses to India, Australia and Afghanistan, and the road ahead is not easy by any means.
Pakistan have been questioned for the players’ attitude on the field, but for them, it will be about focusing what’s at stake. Pakistan play South Africa (27 October), Bangladesh (31 October), New Zealand (4 November) and England (11 November) in their remaining league matches, and even if they win all these games, they would have to rely on other certain teams to do them favours.
Let us now take a look at the possible scenarios that could help Pakistan qualify for the semi-finals:
Win all matches: To qualify for the semi-finals, Pakistan should not only look to win all matches, but also look to win by big margins. All three of Pakistan’s losses have been by a heavy margin so far, and a Net Run Rate of -0.400 does not help their case.
Pakistan are currently in fifth place with four points, and wins in each of their last four league matches would take them to 12 points. At the same time, they would need to hope Australia slip up and lose at least two of their last four games. To put into context, Australia are currently fourth in the standings with six points, two more points than Pakistan.
Pakistan’s loss to Afghanistan has put their semi-final hopes in an even tougher position. Afghanistan now have four points from five games, and are only a spot behind Pakistan on Net Run Rate.
In the unlikely scenario Afghanistan win all their remaining games, and so do Pakistan, then it could come down to NRR, provided Australia slip up.
Pakistan and Australia could also dash New Zealand’s hopes. Both are yet to face the Kiwis, and should both teams win all their four games, it could mean Australia go through in third place, and Pakistan in fourth, provided they have a better NRR and New Zealand lose more than two matches.
Win three out of four matches: Should Pakistan win three out of their last four games, that would take them to 10 points from nine games, and might just be enough for them to sneak into the last four. But, it’s easier said that done for Pakistan.
In such a case, Pakistan must hope Australia lose a minimum of two matches, and such a scenario would mean the NRR coming into play, since both teams would have 10 points.
Should Australia go onto lose three of their four games, and Pakistan win three, then Pakistan would be the favourites to go through.
Win two out of four matches: Two wins in their next four matches will only take Pakistan’s points tally to eight, and that won’t be enough for them to qualify for the semis.
With teams like South Africa and New Zealand already getting to eight points, the only unlikely scenario Pakistan can qualify with two wins will be if both the Proteas and Kiwis lose all matches, which take these three teams to eight points and NRR comes into play. But then again, Australia having two more points than Pakistan only complicates Pakistan’s situation, and Pakistan would want Australia to lose all matches in this case.
How South Africa can qualify for the semi-finals
South Africa seem to be heading towards the right path as far as their semi-final hopes are concerned. Four wins in five matches have taken them to second place with eight points, only ahead of New Zealand on Net Run Rate.
New Zealand on 1 November could be the game that determines South Africa’s hopes of progression. Should South Africa and New Zealand win both their next games against Pakistan and Australia respectively, that would take both teams to 10 points, and the winner of New Zealand-South Africa will hold an edge towards qualification.
They can afford to lose to New Zealand, given that South Africa win their other three matches that would take their points tally to 14.
South Africa will stand eliminated should they lose all their remaining games.
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