Over the past few years, the arrival of the Southwest monsoon in Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a trend of early or timely onset. In 2021, the monsoon made its arrival on the 13th of June, while in 2022, it arrived on the 30th of June. The usual monsoon onset date in this region is around the 28th of June.
In the upcoming 10 days, the persistent presence of Western Disturbances combined with the movement of cyclone Biparjoy across parts of India is set to hinder the arrival of monsoon showers in northern parts of the country.
Furthermore, the likelihood of any low-pressure systems developing in the Bay of Bengal and moving towards central India before 24th June remains significantly low. As a consequence, the anticipated onset dates of the Southwest monsoon are likely to be pushed towards the first week of July.
The probability of an earlier-than-normal onset of the monsoon in Jammu and Kashmir is extremely low (10%). There is a slight possibility (30%) that the monsoon onset will occur around the usual time, but there is a very high likelihood that it will happen after June 28.
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