Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a deficit in rain and snow this winter, triggering fears among experts of the possibility of shortage of water for drinking and irrigation later this year in case there are not enough rains in the spring or monsoon.
The meteorological (MeT) department said that Jammu and Kashmir received 176mm overall precipitation in January and February against the normal of 225mm.
“There was a deficit of 22% in overall precipitation in Jammu and Kashmir this winter,” said MeT deputy director Mukhtar Ahmad.
Out of 20 districts of the region, 17 have received deficit rainfall, while there was more than normal rainfall marginally in Baramulla, Anantnag and Poonch.
The MeT said that deficit of more than 60% was witnessed in Jammu, Kathua and Shopian districts, while 20% to 59% deficit was recorded in Kupwara, Bandipora, Srinagar, Budgam, Rajouri, Reasi, Kishtwar, Udhampur and Samba districts.
Ahmad said the main cause of the deficit was absence of active western disturbances this time. “If we see the trend of the past few years, we find less precipitation in February continuously. There has been a major shortfall in February. The month has contributed only 5-8% of overall precipitation,” he added.
Baramulla in north Kashmir was the only exception of excess precipitation of 28% while the central pool of districts like Poonch,Pulwama, Kulgam, Ganderbal, Anantnag and Doda were in the ‘normal range’ of 19% deficit to 19% excess.
“We have records of the weather stations which we monitor, but we expect that there was more precipitation over the higher reaches,” Ahmad said.
“There are chances of water scarcity, but we expect relief as the mountains have received more precipitation. There can be problems in September and October particularly in far-flung areas, which are dependent on mountains sources for potable water,” he added.
“Now, the eyes are on the monsoon. Let’s wait and see how the monsoon will manifest this year,” he said.
Director agriculture, Kashmir, Chowdhary Mohammad Iqbal said it would be premature to comment on the impact, but added that the monsoon rains last year had changed the scenario after the deficit. “We witnessed some good snowfall in the south this winter, but overall there is some climate change. Last year as well, we had a dry season till May end. Many farmers had shifted to maize from paddy, but then there was good monsoon rainfall,” he added.
Meteorologist Mohammad Hussain Mir said the deficit in precipitation was already manifesting itself in the form of above-normal temperatures. “The temperatures are running 5-7 degrees above normal. In Jammu, the temperatures are running 3-4 degrees above normal, which is huge,” Mir said.
J&K received much needed normal rainfall during monsoons in 2022 after two years of deficit seasons. Kashmir received 270mm average rainfall from June 1 to September 29, 2022, an increase of 6% than the normal of 254 mm. Similarly, Jammu division experienced 886mm average rainfall in the four monsoon months, up by 7% than the normal 826mm.
