Extended range forecasts from both the India Meteorological Department and private meteorological forecasters like Skymet Weather suggest that there may be sporadic rainfall in the inland regions of the country until approximately July 6.
On Monday, Skymet Weather shared their extended forecast, indicating that most parts of central and northwest India are experiencing “extremely” and “severely” dry conditions until July 6.
In a statement, Skymet mentioned that their Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS) is projecting a bleak outlook for the next four weeks, from June 9 to July 6. The agricultural heartland is facing significant dryness, which coincides with a crucial period for sowing or preparing the fields with the hope of receiving adequate rainfall. The inadequate rains in the central and western parts of the country, which are considered the core monsoon zone, will pose challenges in absorbing the drying effects, particularly early in the season. This situation may leave farmers undecided about the type of crop and the crop cycle.
The forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates scattered rain coverage during the week of June 30 to July 6. Since June 1, the country has experienced a 54% rain deficiency, with deficiencies of 53% in the south peninsula, 80% in central India, 10% in northwest India, and 53% in east and northeast India.
According to Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather, the monsoon onset over central India is not expected for nearly a week, even with the rainfall brought by Cyclone Biparjoy in Gujarat and Rajasthan. The monsoon coverage in the interior parts of the country has been slow, and it is unlikely to pick up properly until June 18. Biparjoy, after weakening upon landfall, will remain a low-pressure area and hinder the pick-up of monsoon winds. Instead, it will divert moisture toward extreme northwest India. It is unlikely that the rain deficiency in June will be compensated for.
Palawat also mentioned that extended range forecasts have limited accuracy due to the long time lag, and forecasts become more reliable when made around five days in advance.
M Rajeevan, former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, expressed concerns about the monsoon conditions, suggesting a potential delay in the monsoon reaching central India. He noted that the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon needs to become active, and according to IMD’s models, it is unlikely to reach central India before June 21.
The India Meteorological Department reported that the southwest monsoon has advanced into additional parts of Karnataka, Konkan, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, more parts of Andhra Pradesh, northwest Bay of Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and some parts of Bihar on Monday.
On Sunday, maximum temperatures ranged from 42-44 degrees Celsius over parts of East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and Odisha. Severe heatwave conditions were observed in isolated pockets in Odisha, Bihar, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, with heatwave conditions present in isolated pockets in Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Telangana. Except for Gujarat, where temperatures are expected to decrease by 4-6 degrees Celsius, and Rajasthan, where temperatures may fall by 2-3 degrees Celsius in the next five days, no significant changes in maximum temperatures are anticipated across most parts of the country. Severe heatwave conditions are likely to persist in isolated pockets in Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Yanam for the next two days, followed by heatwave conditions in the subsequent three days.
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