Jammu and Kashmir has been witnessing dry weather over the past six weeks, posing a significant threat to the region’s biodiversity. Experts warn of adverse impacts on water bodies, glaciers and key sectors such as agriculture, horticulture and tourism.
The state undergone an extended period of dry weather during the 40-day harsh winter phase known as Chillai Kalan, the coldest stretch of winter observed from December 21 to January 29 annually.
Jammu and Kashmir experienced a rainfall deficit of 79% in this period, recording 12.6 mm of rainfall in December 2023, which is below the average of 59.6 mm, as per the official data from the India Meteorological Department. The dry spell has continued in January, which is considered the coldest month when the valley normally receives maximum snowfall.
The region has also been experiencing temperatures 6-8°C above the winter average. On January 13, the city of Srinagar recorded a maximum temperature of 15°C, marking the highest January temperature in the past two decades.
Director of the Meteorological Department (MET) in Kashmir, Mukhtar Ahmad attributed this dry weather to El Niño.
El Niño is a climatic phenomenon that occurs when there is an unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, representing the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This warming leads to increased sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The elevated temperatures induce a shift in atmospheric circulation, causing reduced rainfall over Indonesia, India and northern Australia. Conversely, it enhances rainfall and the formation of tropical cyclones over the tropical Pacific Ocean.
In Kashmir, El Niño’s impact is observed through prolonged periods of dry weather, milder winters and reduced snowfall. Ahmad notes that the weather in Kashmir was previously influenced by the El Niño effect in January 1998, December 2014, January 2015 and December 2018.
“From a 42% surplus [rainfall] in January 2023 to a significant 79% shortfall in December 2023, Jammu and Kashmir experienced an overall 7% deficit in rainfall last year, illustrating the varied and unpredictable nature of the weather throughout the year. Similarly, we have had a snowless winter so far owing to which various key sectors would get affected,” he said.
In fact, after seven years, Kashmir is experiencing a snowless winter, said Irfan Rashid, a senior assistant professor at the Department of Geo-informatics, University of Kashmir (KU). “The snow in Chillai Kalaan is important for regulating glacier health and stream flows. The dry winters would mean higher mass loss of glaciers in this hydrological year. If the weather conditions do not improve, it might impact hydro power generation, irrigation, agriculture, and dependent sectors,” he said.
Insufficient water is impacting irrigation for agriculture and horticulture in the region, particularly orchard fields in Kashmir. An apple grower from north Kashmir’s Baramulla district Bashir Ahmad says that the absence of precipitation will negatively affect orchards in the upcoming season. “Snow also serves as a protective layer, protecting trees from extreme cold and providing essential chill hours for dormancy. The absence of this natural shield puts trees at risk and could reduce their productivity,” he added.
