The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday that a depression has developed over the southeast Arabian Sea and is expected to move northwestward, potentially intensifying into a cyclonic storm by Wednesday. The IMD’s bulletin stated that the depression was located approximately 950 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,100 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 1,190 km south of Porbandar, and 1,490 km south of Karachi, Pakistan, as of 8:30 am.
Reports suggest that the intensity and location of the storm in the Arabian Sea could impact the onset of the monsoon in Kerala.
The cyclonic storm, which will be named Biparjoy, is forecasted to move in a northward direction and intensify as it progresses over the east-central Arabian Sea and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea, according to the IMD.
This situation bears similarities to the formation of Cyclone Yaas in 2021, which occurred during the onset of the monsoon.
A senior IMD official mentioned that favorable conditions for the progress of the monsoon have been observed for the past week. Satellite images consistently show cloud formation off the Kerala coast, indicating the strengthening of the monsoon.
Regarding the monsoon onset in Kerala, Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, predicts that it may occur on June 8 or June 9. The agency states that the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this time frame, with the onset criteria requiring specified rainfall on two consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala, and coastal Karnataka. Skymet also suggests that the spread and intensity of rainfall may meet these requirements on June 8 or June 9, although the onset of the monsoon may initially be mild and subdued.
